
The UK government’s pledge to deliver 1.5 million homes by 2029 has become one of the defining policy challenges of the decade. Current data show that, at today’s pace, only around half of that figure will be achieved.
Lanpro’s latest analysis suggests net additional dwellings in 2024–25 totalled just 196,500 — far below the 300,000-a-year average needed to hit the target. With housing delivery already running 10 percent below the ten-year trend, the total shortfall could exceed 850,000 homes by the end of the parliamentary term.
The situation is particularly acute in London and the South East, where housing need is highest. In these regions, completions are meeting just 35 to 47 percent of demand. By contrast, parts of the Midlands and the North have exceeded local targets, but those gains cannot offset the chronic under-supply in the south.
Why Is the UK Missing Its Housing Target?
Planning Delays and Policy Fragmentation
The planning system remains one of the biggest barriers to meeting housing targets. Prolonged decision times, inconsistent local policies and stretched planning departments all slow the process. Many local plans are years out of date, and authorities are struggling to align housing allocations with infrastructure and environmental requirements.
The government’s proposed reforms to the National Planning Policy Framework (NPPF) could streamline delivery, but until local authorities have the resources to process applications efficiently, delays will persist. Developers, too, are cautious about submitting large-scale proposals without planning certainty.
A Market Under Pressure
The private sector delivers most new homes in England, but economic headwinds are curbing output. Rising construction costs, high borrowing rates, and weaker buyer confidence have made new developments less viable. Analysts estimate the private sector will struggle to exceed 170,000 completions annually under current conditions.
At the same time, housing associations and local councils face borrowing constraints and high remediation costs, limiting their ability to build affordable homes. This combination has created a delivery vacuum at both ends of the market.
Social Housing Shortfall
Affordable and social housing supply has declined sharply over the past decade. To meet national demand, experts argue that 90,000 new social homes need to be built every year — a figure far beyond current delivery levels. Without a significant expansion in public investment, the affordable housing crisis will deepen.
Skills and Infrastructure Deficits
Labour shortages and stretched supply chains are now structural problems within the UK construction industry. Even if planning reform unlocked new sites, the sector lacks the skilled workforce to build at the required scale. Simultaneously, infrastructure constraints — from schools to transport and utilities — make large new developments difficult to deliver.
Forecasts Paint a Grim Picture
Across multiple independent analyses, the conclusion is consistent: the 1.5 million homes target will be missed by hundreds of thousands.
- The Office for Budget Responsibility projects roughly 1.3 million completions by 2029.
- Savills forecasts delivery closer to 1.0 million, equating to a 500,000-home shortfall.
- The National Housing Federation echoes this figure, warning the UK could miss its target “by half a million homes” without immediate policy action.
The pattern is clear: at the current rate, the UK will build only two-thirds of what’s required.
Closing the Gap: What Needs to Change
- Comprehensive Planning Reform
To unlock delivery, the UK must implement faster, more predictable planning processes. This means:
- Introducing binding local housing targets monitored at national level.
- Releasing more land through greenbelt and grey belt reviews where sustainable.
- Simplifying local plan adoption and ensuring all authorities maintain up-to-date frameworks.
Without these reforms, private developers will continue to face uncertainty, and public housing bodies will struggle to plan long-term investments.
- Reinvestment in Social Housing
Delivering the government’s housing ambition will require a major public sector build programme. Funding must be directed toward housing associations and councils to enable new developments at scale.
Public land, particularly brownfield sites owned by local authorities, should be repurposed for mixed-tenure schemes, ensuring affordable housing remains central to every development plan.
- Stimulating Buyer Demand
To encourage home ownership and stimulate the construction market, policymakers should consider:
- Mortgage guarantees and equity loans for first-time buyers.
- Stamp duty relief on new-build homes.
- Flexible tenure models, such as rent-to-buy or shared ownership, to support those priced out of the market.
- Building Skills and Infrastructure
Meeting housing demand also requires investment in people and places. Expanding construction apprenticeships, improving material supply chains, and aligning infrastructure funding with housing growth areas will ensure delivery remains sustainable.
The Road Ahead: Turning Targets into Homes
The government’s 1.5 million homes target remains achievable — but only with decisive action. Meeting it will demand a combination of planning reform, public investment, market stability, and skills growth.
It’s not enough to set targets; the UK must shift to delivery mode. That means empowering local authorities, funding affordable housing properly, and coordinating national infrastructure with regional housing need.
If these steps are taken, the UK could still reverse the trajectory — transforming political ambition into tangible homes for the next generation.